Those wiggly lines are actual and estimated London Underground passenger figures (see study 1 below).

I have published studies on (please click on web links to access papers):

1. London 2005 Bombings (2011) in Risk Analysis with Garrett Beeler Asay, Bumsoo Lee and Detlof von Winterfeldt;

2. Transportation system resilience (2011) in Transport Policy with Andrew Cox and Adam Rose;

3. A hypothetical flu outbreak (2012) in Risk Anlaysis with Heather Rosoff and Richard John;

4. California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32) (2012) in Contemporary Economic Policy with Adam Rose and Dan Wei.

5. Behavioral Responses to the London July 2005 Bombings: Making Deductions from Counterfactual Estimation and Regression Analysis (2013) in Sage Research Methods Cases. 

6. Economy-wide impacts of reduced wait times at U.S. international airports (2015) in Research in Transportation Business and Management with Adam Rose, Dan Wei, Bryan Roberts, and Charles Baschnagel.


My dissertation uses Computable General Equilibrium modeling to analyze the cost impacts of federal emissions trading policy to the US economy and how these costs are distributed across US sectors, income brackets and regions.

Dissertation Title: The Cost Distribution of U.S. Federal Emissions Trading Policy


This dissertation is about climate change policy, and it is motivated by three themes that dominate climate change policy: Change, inequality, and uncertainty. The impacts of future climate changes are uncertain. Precautionary government intervention can be justified given the potentially catastrophic outcomes of climate change, especially for the most vulnerable communities. However, there is concern that policy changes would unduly burden the economy and inequitably impact the poorest households and regions through reductions to income, purchasing power and limited opportunities in the new green economy. This dissertation informs this debate by analyzing the economic changes resulting from a U.S. federal emissions trading policy, a market-based approach used by governments worldwide to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Computable general equilibrium modeling is used to identify the distributional economic impacts across U.S. household income groups and regions. Emissions trading policy can be designed to alleviate regulatory burdens on specific sectors, regions, or income brackets. This dissertation compares the unique general equilibrium impacts of numerous policy design options. Uncertainty over climate change has also contributed to an increasingly contentious political debate over climate change policy. Computable general equilibrium results are also used to explore the influence of economic impacts on federal and state level climate policy making. This inter-disciplinary dissertation is the first study to explicitly explore the links between regional economic impact results and the decision making of political representatives, as well as implications for theories of public policy and governance institutions.

Book Chapters

Schweitzer, L., P. Murray-Tuite, D. Inloes, M. Rhoads, and F. Prager. (2012) Freight Security and Livability: US Toxic and Hazardous Events from 2000 to 2010, in Security Aspects of Uni- and Multimodal Hazmat Transportation Systems (eds G. L. L. Reniers and L. Zamparini), Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim, Germany

Technical Reports

Rose, A,. D. Wei, F. Prager. (2010). Impacts of Climate Policy on the California Economy. In Designing the Allocation Process for California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Program: The multi-billion dollar question. December 2010. Available online at

Prager, F., and D. Von Winterfeldt. (Eds.). (2009). Behavioral Changes Following Terrorist Attacks: International Comparisons. Report for METRANS Transportation Center, USC.

Roberts, B., F. Prager, A. Rose, C. Baschnagel, N. Heatwole, B. Shears, and T. Beggs. (2014). Economic Benefits of Customs and Border Protection, Centers of Excellence and Expertise. Phase 1 Report for Customs and Border Protection.

Roberts, B., S. McGonegal, F. Prager, D. Wei, A. Rose, C. Baschnagel, T. Beggs, and O. Baghelai (2014). Analysis of Primary Inspection Wait Time at U.S. Ports of Entry. Report to Customs and Border Protection. 

Working Papers

Prager, F., D. Wei, and A. Rose (2016). Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States. Manuscript submitted for review. 

Prager, F., Z. Chen, and A. Rose (2015) Analyzing the Economic Consequences of Disasters across Multiple Threats using Computable General Equilibrium Modeling. Manuscript submitted for review.

Prager, F. (2016). The Aggregate and Distributional Economic Impacts of U.S. Federal Climate Policy. Manuscript Submitted for Publication.

Prager, F. and J. Sellers. (2016). State-Level Influences on U.S. Federal Representative Climate Policy Voting: Representative Ideology, Economic Interests, Climate Benefits, and Policy Path Dependency. Manuscript in Preparation.